BY CHARLES SCUDDER | @cscudder

Historically, the team with the winning rider of the men’s ITTs has a 75 percent chance of hoisting the Borg-Warner Trophy, while 33.3 percent of women’s ITT winners win the race.

But without analyzing the performance of every single cyclist for the past 20 years of ITT results — that’s at least 5,000 riders, for those of you keeping score at home — it is nearly impossible to produce a model for predicting how ITT performance weighs into the probability each team has to win the race.

If we rank each rider from Saturday and award points per position — first gets one point, second gets two points, third gets three, etc. — we start to get a picture of team performance in an individualized event.

MEN
Northern Indiana Cycling — 66
Alpha Epsilon Pi — 89
Beta Theta Pi — 106
Cutters — 111
Evans Scholars — 111
Phi Kappa Tau — 128
Sigma Chi — 135
Phi Gamma Delta — 156
Dodd’s House — 184
Delta Tau Delta — 221
Pi Kappa Alpha — 237
Black Key Bulls — 250
Forest — 278
Wright Cycling — 286
Alpha Tau Omega — 298
Delta Chi — 309
Phi Kappa Sigma — 350
Delta Sigma Pi — 351
Phi Kappa Psi — 353
Sigma Phi Epsilon — 360
Phi Sigma Kappa — 360
Gray Goat — 403
Sigma Nu — 409
Kappa Delta Rho — 481
Sigma Alpha Mu — 495
Sigma Alpha Epsilon — 547
Delta Upsilon — 574
Phi Delta Theta — 590
CSF — 600
Lambda Chi Alpha — 697
Collins — 965
Sigma Pi — ND
Pi Kappa Phi — ND

WOMEN
Army — 113
Mezcla — 131
Chi Omega — 162
Cru — 163
Delta Sigma Pi — 168
Ski — 181
Kappa Alpha Theta — 185
Melanzana — 193
Alpha Sigma Alpha — 227
Theta Phi Alpha — 240
CSF — 246
Alpha Chi Omega — 255
Kappa Kappa Gamma — 262
Alpha Xi Delta — 268
Teter — 284
Sigma Delta Tau — 288
Phi Mu — 316
Zeta Tau Alpha — 316
Delta Zeta — 345
Delta Gamma —358
Alpha Omicron Pi —360
Alpha Gamma Delta — 389
Wing It — 392
RideOn — 400
Gamma Phi Beta — 411
Alpha Delta Pi — 417
IU Nursing — 460
Delta Phi Epsilon — 497
Collins — 650
Kappa Delta — 782
Air Force — ND
Delta Delta Delta — ND
Alpha Phi — ND

But those statistics aren’t exactly fair, either. Northern Indiana Cycling, which scored 66 points in our model, only had one rider who placed 66th. Collins, which placed dead last in the men’s rankings, had eight riders, making their point total much higher.

Some quick averaging of team totals over the number of competing riders in each team shows the average ITT placement for each qualified team.

MEN
Beta Theta Pi — 26.5
Cutters — 27.8
Black Key Bulls — 27.8
Delta Tau Delta — 36.8
Alpha Epsilon Pi — 44.5
Sigma Chi — 45
Wright Cycling — 47.7
Sigma Phi Epsilon — 51.4
Phi Gamma Delta — 52
Phi Delta Theta — 53.6
Sigma Alpha Epsilon — 60.8
Northern Indiana Cycling — 66
Forest — 69.5
Phi Kappa Sigma — 70
Delta Sigma Pi — 70.2
Gray Goat — 80.6
CSF — 85.7
Lambda Chi Alpha — 87.1
Phi Kappa Psi — 88.3
Dodd’s House — 92
Delta Upsilon — 95.7
Alpha Tau Omega — 99.3
Sigma Nu — 102.3
Delta Chi — 103
Evans Scholars — 111
Pi Kappa Alpha — 118.5
Phi Sigma Kappa — 120
Kappa Delta Rho — 120.3
Collins — 120.6
Sigma Alpha Mu — 123.8
Phi Kappa Tau — 128
Sigma Pi — ND
Pi Kappa Phi — ND

WOMEN
Cru — 32.6
Army — 37.7
Melanzana — 38.6
Alpha Chi Omega — 42.5
Mezcla — 43.7
Ski — 45.3
Kappa Alpha Theta — 46.3
Teter — 47.3
CSF — 49.2
Phi Mu — 52.7
Alpha Xi Delta — 53.6
Chi Omega — 54
Theta Phi Alpha — 60
Kappa Delta — 60.7
Alpha Gamma Delta — 64.8
Wing It — 65.3
Kappa Kappa Gamma — 65.5
Delta Gamma — 71.6
Alpha Sigma Alpha — 75.7
Collins — 81.3
Gamma Phi Beta — 82.2
Delta Sigma Pi — 84
Alpha Omicron Pi — 90
Sigma Delta Tau — 96
Ride On — 100
Alpha Delta Pi — 104.3
Zeta Tau Alpha — 105.7
Delta Zeta — 115
IU Nursing — 115
Delta Phi Epsilon — 124.3
Air Force — ND
Delta Delta Delta — ND
Alpha Phi — ND

That looks a little more accurate, doesn’t it?

With Miss ‘N Out and Team Pursuit delayed until next weekend, it’ll be longer until we get a better picture of team probability of winning the race. But expect standout performances from ITT champs Aryn Doll of Chi Omega and Christopher Craig of Beta Theta Pi.

UPDATE: Shortly after posting the above numbers, we received some thoughtful feedback from a handful of our readers, pointing out something we hadn’t thought about.

Truthfully, a handful of rookies and other riders that will not compete on race day compete in ITTs. In our original post, we included every single one of those riders as well, showing each team’s overall performance in ITTs.

In order to show a better picture of what each team will look like on race day, we’ve taken only the placement of the top four riders for a given team. We then averaged that total by the number of ITT riders per team, maxing at four.

MEN
Phi Delta Theta — 7.8
Black Key Bulls — 9
Delta Tau Delta — 24.8
Beta Theta Pi — 26.5
Cutters — 27.8
Sigma Phi Epsilon — 31.8
Phi Kappa Tau — 32
Sigma Alpha Epsilon — 35
Wright Cycling — 39.5
Alpha Epsilon Pi — 44.5
Sigma Chi — 45
Phi Gamma Delta — 52
Phi Kappa Sigma — 58.6
Lambda Chi Alpha — 61.5
Delta Sigma Pi — 62
CSF — 63.3
Northern Indiana Cycling — 66
Forest — 69.5
Gray Goat — 70
Delta Upsilon — 80.3
Phi Kappa Psi — 88.3
Dodd’s House — 92
Alpha Tau Omega — 99.3
Sigma Nu — 102.3
Delta Chi — 103
Collins — 106.3
Evans Scholars — 111
Pi Kappa Alpha — 118.5
Phi Sigma Kappa — 120
Kappa Delta Rho — 120.3
Sigma Alpha Nu — 123.8
Sigma Pi — ND
Pi Kappa Phi — ND

WOMEN
Teter — 10.5
Kappa Alpha Theta — 16.5
Alpha Chi Omega — 18
Melanzana — 26.8
Phi Mu — 27.8
Cru — 29.5
Army — 37.7
Alpha Xi Delta — 41.5
Mezcla — 43.7
Wing It — 44.8
Ski  — 45.3
CSF — 46
Kappa Delta — 49.8
Chi Omega — 54
Alpha Gamma Delta — 58.3
Theta Phi Alpha — 60
Collins — 61.3
Delta Gamma — 63.3
Kappa Kappa Gamma — 65.5
Alpha Sigma Alpha — 75.7
Gamma Phi Beta — 76.8
Delta Sigma Pi — 84
Alpha Omicron Pi — 90
Sigma Delta Tau — 96
Ride On — 100
Alpha Delta Pi — 104.3
Zeta Tau Alpha — 105.3
Delta Zeta — 115
IU Nursing— 115
Delta Phi Epsilon — 124.3
Air Force — ND
Delta Delta Delta — ND
Alpha Phi — ND

What I find most interesting about these new adjusted averages is the top of the men’s field, where there is a 1.2-point difference between first and second position, but a 15.8-point difference between second and third. We can expect a strong showing from both Black Key Bulls and Phi Delta Theta on race day. The top riders on each of those teams are markedly stronger than those of other teams in the field, according to their ITT performance.

Charles Scudder is a senior studying journalism at IU. He put off taking a required statistics course until the last semester of his senior year, so go easy on him if his math is screwy. Email him at cscudder@indiana.edu.